I am summarizing and commenting on Igor Lipovsky’s Early Israelites.
Lipovsky gives a very detailed scenario for how Moses began his exodus. The more detailed your speculation, the more in danger it is of getting overturned. This is a case in point because a new find has undermined essential details of Lipovsky’s sequence of events.
But here is a sketch of his sequence:
Under Queen Tausret (I am using Lipovsky’s spelling) Moses thought he could get his people out of Egypt under the ruse of making a pilgrimage into the Sinai wilderness. Under the influence of Chancelor Bay (the Irsu of the Harris Papyrus) she denied this request. Some natural disasters followed and civil unrest increased. The Hebrews interpreted these events as acts of God.
But then Queen Tausret died. Bay assumed power and declared himself pharaoh. But the army refused to recognize him and backed a rival, Setnakht. Bay was…
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